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Playoff Watch
Friday April 6, 2007
Permalink Posted by: Ben Wright at 9:30PM EST on April 6, 2007
And now we wait. What a win for the Thrashers and what an effort from Moose. There's a period and change left until the Panthers and Lightning wrap things up but I'm liking out odds with the Panthers up 6-0.

Has anyone come back from a six goal deficit for a win? I don't know, but I doubt it.

Thursday April 5, 2007
Permalink Posted by: Ben Wright at 5:34PM EST on April 5, 2007

There are five Eastern Conference games on the schedule tonight but only four have playoff implications (the other one is Boston at Buffalo, but Buffalo has clinched the conference title and Boston is long gone). Did I just say only four? When was the last time there were this many games that mattered three days before the season ended?

Here's what we have:

Montreal at NY Rangers

  • Montreal can leapfrog the Rangers with a win and can clinch a playoff spot if they win and Toronto picks up a point or less.
  • The Rangers can climb to sixth (possibly setting up a first-round meeting with Atlanta) with a win and can clinch a playoff berth in the process. They also clinch if they lose but Toronto picks up a point or less.
  • As you can see, both teams can clinch if Montreal wins and Toronto doesn't.
  • Desired Outcome: I'm not worried about a Rangers matchup, but there's still a slim possibility that the Thrashers could drop as low as eighth. They'd have to go 0-2-0 for it to happen and everyone else would have to win out, but it's technically possible. I'd prefer a Montreal win, just to keep things tighter at the bottom, though I'm not opposed to a Rangers win and a Toronto win, which would make the Canadiens/Leafs game on Saturday the deciding game for both squads with the winner getting a playoff spot. In short, I'm torn. I'm just hoping it ends in regulation.

New Jersey at Philadelphia

  • Philly doesn't matter
  • The Devils can claim the Atlantic Division title with a win or if Pittsburgh drops a point
  • Desired Outcome: I've decided I want the Devils to win their division and advance to the second round, just because I like how we match up against them, and it would force someone else to deal with Pittsburgh. Ottawa and Pittsburgh have been hot through March and April and it's in everyone else's best interests if they play each other in the opening round.

Pittsburgh at Ottawa

  • Home ice is on the line in this game which could be a preview of the 4 vs 5 series in the opening round. Ottawa can't climb any higher but the Penguins can move as high as third if New Jersey loses out and they win out.
  • Desired Outcome: An Ottawa win, giving the Devils the Atlantic title for the reasons stated above.

Toronto at NY Islanders

  • Toronto can stay in the playoff race tonight if they win, or if they get a point and Montreal gets a point or less, or if they lose and Montreal loses.
  • The Islanders have to win to stay alive and they need Montreal to drop at least a point.
  • Desired Outcome: A Toronto win just so Montreal and Toronto can play each other for a playoff spot on Saturday.
     
Tuesday April 3, 2007
Permalink Posted by: Ben Wright at 6:03PM EST on April 3, 2007

There are six NHL games on the schedule tonight involving Eastern Conference teams that are still in the playoff hunt and there's something up for grabs in every single one of them.

Buffalo at Pittsburgh

  • Buffalo has all but clinched first place in the East. Two points tonight seals the deal for them.
  • Pittsburgh is sitting in second in the Atlantic and is going toe-to-toe with the Devils for the division title. My money is on the team that didn't fire their coach yesterday.
  • Desired Outcome: It doesn't matter much, though the loser of the Devils/Penguins battle is the most likely to pull off a first-round upset.

Philadelphia at Toronto

  • Philly doesn't matter at this point.
  • Toronto is clinging to life and needs a win. They can't be eliminated tonight, but they can be put on life support if they lose and Montreal and Tampa win.
  • Desired Outcome: It depends how much you despise the Leafs. Go Flyers!

Boston at Montreal

  • An Original Six matchup featuring two historic rivals with a playoff spot hanging in the balance. Boston is out of it but they'd love to play the spoiler and help bump Montreal out of their 8th spot.
  • A Montreal loss spells trouble for them if Toronto or Carolina wins tonight.
  • Desired Outcome: I still say Montreal will be a dangerous opponent, especially with Huet coming back. I'm pulling for the Bruins.

Ottawa at New Jersey

  • The Devils, under new head coach Lou Lamoriello, can hang on to the Atlantic lead with a win.
  • Ottawa can still theoretically catch Buffalo but they'd need to win out and the Sabres would have to go winless over four games. Not likely. The Sens are also jockeying with New Jersey and Pittsburgh for the 4th spot and 5th spots, which doesn't change the matchups in the opening round but it does determine home ice.
  • Desired Outcome: It's a matter of preference again, but the winner of the Atlantic title is the most likely second round opponent of the Thrashers, and I like the sound of a Thrashers/Devils series. Go Jersey!

Rangers at Islanders

  • The Rangers are one of the hottest teams in the east and are trying to hang on to the sixth spot. They're a point ahead of Tampa Bay and could clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight. They can still clinch if they get a point if Toronto loses and Carolina is limited to a point.
  • The Islanders are dead in the water and probably aren't getting Dipietro back this season. What does that mean? It means Chris Simon is still going to have upwards of a dozen games to serve on his suspension at the beginning of next season because the Islanders aren't going to the playoffs. Good luck finding a GM to sign you when you have to sit for the first month Chris.
  • Desired Outcome: I want no part of the Rangers. Hot goalies are more dangerous than a hot offense, so I'd rather see New York slip to seventh.

Carolina at Tampa Bay

  • This is the big one folks. If Carolina wins the Thrashers can claim the Southeast Division title tomorrow night with a win over the Capitals.
  • Tampa can put pressure on the Thrashers with a win, and clinch a playoff spot with the combination of a win and loss of any sort by Toronto.
  • Carolina can vault back into the think of things and move as high as a tie for eighth (they'd lose the tie-breaker) with Montreal id the Canadiens and Leafs both lose tonight.
  • Desired Outcome: Carolina all the way, even though I'd rather have Tampa move ahead of the Rangers. The dream scenario is for the Lightning to lose tonight and the Thrashers to win at Philips tomorrow. The playoff spot wasn't clinched at home, so it would be nice to capture the Southeast crown in front of our fans.

As a bonus, here's the text from today's daily NHL press release outlining all of the playoff scenarios that are on the line tonight:

Six clubs could clinch division titles and/or playoff berths tonight:

Buffalo can clinch the Northeast Division and Eastern Conference tonight:
* If they beat Pittsburgh.

New York Rangers can clinch an Eastern Conference playoff berth tonight:
* If they beat the Islanders or they get one point and Carolina gets one or no points against Tampa Bay and Toronto gets no points against Philadelphia.

Tampa Bay can clinch an Eastern Conference playoff berth tonight:
* If they beat Carolina and Toronto gets one or no points against Philadelphia or Montreal gets one or no points against Boston.

Calgary can clinch a Western Conference playoff berth tonight:
* If they beat Colorado.

Detroit can clinch the Central Division tonight:
* If they beat Columbus and Nashville gets no points against Chicago.

Vancouver can clinch the Northwest Division tonight:
* If they beat Los Angeles and Minnesota and Calgary get one or no points in their games or if they get one point against Los Angeles and Minnesota and Calgary both get no points in their games.

Crystal clear, right?

Thursday March 29, 2007
Permalink Posted by: Ben Wright at 3:55PM EST on March 29, 2007
We have a grand total of one game tonight other than the Thrashers game that impacts the Eastern Conference playoff race, and it only involves one playoff-bound team.


Pittsburgh (5th, 98 pts) at Boston (13th, 76 pts)

  • The Penguins got some help last night when the Sabres beat the Devils, keeping New Jersey tied with Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh can move into second for the time being if they get a point or two tonight, but keep in mind that they'll also have played one more game than Jersey.
  • The Bruins are still in it mathematically, but that's just a technicality. Let the kids audition for next year.
  • Desired Outcome: This one doesn't matter when it comes to the Thrashers, but it would be nice to see the Bruins show up tired on Saturday when they host Atlanta. All I'm asking for is an exhausting game.
Tuesday March 27, 2007
Permalink Posted by: Ben Wright at 4:39PM EST on March 27, 2007

Welcome to today's edition of Playoff Watch. There were no Eastern Conference games last night so the NHL is making u for it tonight with six games involving teams still in the Eastern Conference hunt. Here's how they break down.

Pittsburgh (5th, 96 pts) at Washington (14th, 65 pts)

  • Washington's goose is cooked but they have plenty of players that are playing for contracts who are happy to play the role of spoiler.
  • Pittsburgh is tied with the Devils but New Jersey has a game in hand in more wins. A Penguins win and a Devils loss tonight moves Crosby and company into the second seed.
  • Desired Outcome: With and eight point gap to make up and only 12 points left on the table the Thrashers don't have much of a shot at moving any higher than third. Odds are the loser in the race for the Atlantic title is going to finish fifth, and the Thrashers are eyeing the third sixth or seventh spot, so this one really doesn't matter much. A Washington upset would keep things interesting though.

Florida (12th, 76 pts) at Tampa Bay (7th, 84 pts)

  • Florida is still hanging around but realistically, they're done. They aren't going to close an eight-point gap with seven games left and pass four teams in the process.
  • Tampa Bay refuses to go away and is only two back of Atlanta. They can put pressure on the Thrashers with a win tonight, but they're actually worse at home than they are on the road. Tampa is still in danger of slipping out of playoff contention so they're desperate for these points. Tampa is 4-2-1 against the Panthers this season.
  • Desired Outcome: Go Panthers. The more of a cushion there is between the Lightning and the Thrashers by the end of next week the better. As exciting as it would be, I'd rather not have the division title on the line when we host Tampa Bay in the season finale.

Carolina (8th, 84 pts) at Toronto (11th, 82 pts)

  • Carolina is hanging onto the eighth spot and is still eying the Southeast Division title, even though they haven't been in first in the division all season. They could tie Tampa Bay and move into seventh with a win and a Lightning loss.
  • The Maple Leafs refuse to quit and are just two points out of the last playoff spot. they're not strong at home and a large part of that is Andrew Raycroft who for some reason plays with more confidence between the pipes when he's on the road. It couldn't have anything to do with the constant criticism form Leafs fans, could it?
  • Desired Outcome: A Toronto regulation time win. A hot Carolina team should scare everyone, and I'd rather see the race for the last couple of spots go down to the wire. The more the 6-11 teams beat up on each other the better, especially if the Thrashers can win a few games and get some distance between themselves and the rest of the pack.

NY Rangers (6th, 87 pts) at Montreal (10th, 84 pts)

  • The Rangers aren't going to catch anyone but they sure would like a cushion so they can sleep at night. They might be the most consistent team in the East right now, and it has a lot to do with their goaltending.
  • Montreal is still in the fight and can move into a tie for seventh with some help tonight. They've been showing some signs of life lately, and as I mentioned previously, they're always a threat to steal a round once they get into the postseason.
  • Desired Outcome: It's a tough call, but I'd probably prefer a Rangers win. I like how Atlanta matches up with New York and wouldn't mind seeing the two teams faceoff in the opening round, which is what would happen if the season ended with the standings as they are today.

Boston (13th, 74 pts) at Ottawa (4th, 98 pts)

  • It might not be official yet, but Boston is out. They're playing for pride, individual stats and 2007-08 roster spots. Based on their performance in Pittsburgh on Sunday none of those mean a whole lot to them.
  • Ottawa has already clinched a playoff spot and the way they're playing (no regulation losses in their last ten games) they could close the five-point gap between them and Buffalo and take the top seed in the conference.
  • Desired Outcome: It doesn't really matter, so let's pull for the upset. Even though Buffalo scares me a bit I'd rather see them hang on to the top spot.

New Jersey (2nd, 96 pts) at NY Islanders (9th, 84 pts)

  • New Jersey is battling Pittsburgh for the Atlantic Division crown and can keep their lead with a win tonight.
  • The Islanders might be tied for the last spot but they're done. Rick Dipietro is out with post-concussion syndrome and New York's chances rest with Mike Dunham. I think I know that story ends.
  • Desired Outcome: A New York win would keep things interesting at the bottom of the heap, and I like interesting. Odds are New Jersey is going to roll over them though.
Friday March 23, 2007
Permalink Posted by: Ben Wright at 5:27PM EST on March 23, 2007

There's one and only one game involving Eastern Conference teams tonight and it happens to be a good ol' border battle between the Leafs and the Sabres.

Toronto (11th, 80 pts) at Buffalo (1st, 101 pts)

  • This is the first game of a home-and-home series. Buffalo has the best home record in the Eastern Conference and they're coming off of 5-2 drubbing of the Capitals.
  • The Sabres are in no danger of being caught by anyone in the conference, but they are battling Nashville for first place in the league. It's always nice to have a President's Trophy on the mantle, and home ice in the Finals is huge if you can get there.
  • The Maple Leafs are two points behind the pack that's tied for eighth and they don't have a particularly easy schedule ahead of them. Losing both games this weekend would kill their playoff hops.
  • Preferred Outcome: Go Sabres. Soften them up before they come to Philips next Thursday, okay? A Buffalo win doesn't hurt Atlanta at all, and Toronto missing the playoffs would bring plenty of joy to Blueland.
Thursday March 22, 2007
Permalink Posted by: Ben Wright at 5:43PM EST on March 22, 2007

There are six games on tonight's schedule involving Eastern Conference teams that are still in the playoff hunt- five games if you don't include ours. Here's what's up, and here are the standings for easy reference:



Washington (14th, 65 pts) at Carolina (8th, 80 pts)

  • Washington is done but they certainly don't mind being the spoiler, do they? At least that's what I hear. I've blocked out last April.
  • Carolina is in a dogfight for one of the last spots and their competition is in action tonight too. They're desperate for a win. Olaf Kolzig was shaky in his return last night so Carolina will probably see Johnson. The Hurricanes are off for four days after this game and need to bank the points.
  • Preferred Outcome: Carolina has given Atlanta plenty of trouble this season but I still wouldn't mind facing them in the playoffs. Ward doesn't play well against us and I'm pretty confident that Grahame can't win a playoff series versus the Thrashers. with an eight-point cushion over the 'Canes I don't think we should be too worried about them catching us, but if you're the nervous sort you'll want to pull for Washington. I just can't bring myself to do it, and I have a healthy respect for the Carolina organization. I want them to make it as a seventh or eighth seed.

Montreal (10th, 80 pts) at Boston (13th, 73 pts)

  • Boston is clinging to life and a loss tonight will kill their slim hopes. They'd be at least eight points out (nine if Carolina wins or Montreal wins in regulation) with 18 points on the table. they're not passing five other teams with that schedule left.
  • A win for Montreal puts them firmly back in the race and moves them as high as seventh or, at worst, a tie for eighth again. They have to keep pace, especially with the pressure from the Montreal press mounting. If Montreal misses the playoffs they're in for a brutal off-season that should be full of changes. Better them than us.
  • Preferred Outcome: A Boston win. A desperate Boston team means trouble for everyone they're fighting with and the longer their hopes are alive the more they can help the Thrashers. All of their remaining games are against playoff contenders and they could do us some favors by winning some of them. A hungry Bruins team is good for Atlanta, and to be honest Montreal in the playoffs scares me. No matter where they're seeded they find ways to win in the first round, and I'd rather not face them in the second season.

Pittsburgh (5th, 92 pts) at NY Islanders (11th, 79 pts)

  • Pittsburgh is chasing New Jersey and really wants that second seed.
  • The Islanders have been struggling and haven't won in four games. they desperately need points and if it wasn't for Ryan Smyth and Marc-Andre Bergeron they wouldn't be getting any production. A win keeps them in the race. A loss could be a back-breaker.
  • Preferred Outcome: An Islanders win. The Thrashers can still get the second seed but they need some help. A Pittsburgh win just gives the Devils more motivation, and a motivated Marty Brodeur is bad news. I'd rather be chasing New Jersey than Pittsburgh at this point, and a win tonight and on Saturday in Pittsburgh could pull the Thrashers even with the Penguins is the islanders pull one out tonight. Pray for a regulation win so both teams don't get points.

New Jersey (2nd, 94 pts) at Tampa Bay (6th, 84 pts)

  • The Devils are trying to keep ahead of the Penguins but have lost three of their last four.
  • Tampa is trying to stay in contention and is hoping to catch the Thrashers. their goaltender has been weak and they've dropped three of four as well.
  • Preferred Outcome: This is a no-brainer. Go Devils. I'll settle for the third seed instead of the second if it means Tampa doesn't make it to the dance. As much as I'd like to spend a few days in Florida in April I don't want to face the Lightning. Brad Richards was scary good under pressure when they won the Cup and Lecavalier has Conn Smythe potential. I want no part of the Lightning.

Ottawa (4th, 94 pts) at Florida (12th, 75 pts)

  • Florida has been on a mission lately and refuses to quit. They need two points to stay alive.
  • Ottawa is everyone's favorite dark horse and they've only lost in regulation once in their last ten. I smell an upset. Ottawa really isn't a factor for the Thrashers.
  • Preferred Outcome: I'm taking the same stance I did with Boston. We're not competing with Florida for a post so I want them to be hungry. They have two more games against Tampa and two against the Lightning. Incredibly, their last seven games are against Southeast Division teams, so don't count them out yet. They could grab that eighth spot if they stay hot and get some help, and i'm okay with that.

That's it for now. Time to go to the arena. If you're watching tonight's game at home feel free to post some comments in this thread. I'll be checking in.

Tuesday March 20, 2007
Permalink Posted by: Ben Wright at 5:19PM EST on March 20, 2007

Last night the Rangers did the Thrashers and beat Pittsburgh, keeping the Pens within striking distance for the Thrashers. Atlanta is sitting third in the East but could move up to second with some help.

There are four games scheduled for tonight that have Eastern conference playoff implications. Here's what they are:

Boston (12th, 73 pts) at Montreal (11th, 78 pts)

  • This is the first game of a home-and-home series. With two clean wins and no extra points the Bruins can move to within a point of Montreal and keep their playoff dream alive.
  • With a win tonight Montreal can move into a tie for eighth with Carolina.
  • Both teams have struggled lately. Boston got thumped 7-0 by the Rangers on the weekend, prompting their coach to say he was embarrassed for anyone that went to a Bruins game this year.
  • Preferred outcome: Atlanta is 1-3 against Montreal this season, but the losses came before the trade deadline makeover and before Huet got injured. Personally I'd rather not see Montreal make it, and if they can move up to eighth they could move up another spot or two and become a candidate for Atlanta's first-round opponent. When The Canadiens play well they give Atlanta fits, so I'll be going for Boston in this one.

New Jersey (2nd, 94 pts) at Toronto (10th, 78 pts)

  • Toronto is another team trying to catch Carolina tonight and they could do it with a win.
  • New Jersey is fighting to stay ahead of Pittsburgh.
  • The good news for the Devils is that they're 3-0-0 in their last three road games. the bad news is that Toronto, despite being on a two-game skid, is 2-0-0 in their last two games at home.
  • Toronto won't have Tomas Kaberle back tonight as they'd hoped. You may remember that he was injured by Devils forward Cam Janssen on March 2. Will there be any payback tonight?
  • Preferred outcome: A Toronto win helps Atlanta stay closer to the second spot, and if Toronto can squeak into the playoffs and be a seventh or sixth seed they could face the Thrashers (especially if Atlanta catches NJ and Pitt.). I'd pay top dollar to see that series. Go Leafs.

New York Islanders (9th, 78 pts) at Tampa Bay (6th, 82 pts)

  • Tampa Bay is six points behind Atlanta and is on a three-game losing streak during which they've gotten no help from their goaltenders, prompting management to call up their third-stringer (Karri Ramo) from Springfield.
  • The Islanders haven't been doing any better between the pipes. They've given up 16 goals in three games since Rick Dipietro got hurt, but he could be back tonight. New York is desperate for a win, which would move them into a tie for Carolina for eighth. Sound familiar?
  • Preferred outcome: Go Islanders. There's no upside to the Lightning inching closer to the Thrashers, and nobody in this city should want the April 7 finale between the Thrashers and Lightning to mean anything. Pray for a regulation win and more goalie problems for Tampa as it can only rattle the confidence of the Lightning. It's looked for a while like the Thrashers and Lightning might be destined for a first-round matchup. the worse shape Tampa is in when they get there, the better.

Ottawa (4th, 92 pts) at St. Louis

  • This isn't a particularly meaningful game as long as Atlanta can keep its grasp on the Southeast Division title. Ottawa isn't going to catch Buffalo so the highest they'll finish is fourth. St. Louis hasn't been in the race in the West for ages, but they have plenty of people playing for jobs next season. Don't expect them to hand the Sens a win out of the goodness of their hearts.
  • Preferred outcome: An Ottawa loss would be nice just because no Thrashers fan should want Ottawa on a hot streak heading into the post-season. Plenty of people are picking the Senators as a dark horse Stanley Cup Finalist. If they can figure out how to hang on to third period leads they could be extremely dangerous (thank goodness the Thrashers got over that recurring problem, huh?).
Monday March 19, 2007
Permalink Posted by: Ben Wright at 5:37PM EST on March 19, 2007

Time allowing, at the end of each business day from now until the end of the season I'm going to do a quick post on the night's games that have playoff implications. And just because the Western Conference doesn't matter until we reach the Stanley Cup Final, I'll be keeping the analysis limited to games involving Eastern teams.

So what's on the slate tonight? Pittsburgh at the Rangers. The Penguins are one of two teams in the NHL that have been hotter than Atlanta over the last 10 games (we're 8-2-0. Colorado and Pittsburgh are 8-1-1).

What's on the line:

Pittsburgh (4th- 92 pts)

  • Can move into a tie for first in the Atlantic with a win, moving them from fourth to second.

NY Rangers (7th- 79 pts)

  • Can leapfrog Carolina and move from eighth to seventh in the conference and give themselves a three-point cushion over ninth place.

While the game will have some pretty significant implications for both teams neither one is competing directly with Atlanta  for a playoff spot. The best outcome for Thrashers fans would probably be a Rangers win, since the Thrashers could still catch New Jersey and Pittsburgh and take second in the conference instead of the third spot they're holding down as the Southeast Division leaders. That being said, New Jersey and Pittsburgh both have two games in hand over Atlanta, so it might be a bit premature to talk about passing them.

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